Modelling
We are experts in preparing models and undertaking quantitative analysis. Our team possesses capabilities across the whole of the mathematical and technical spectrum, from machine learning to optimization to time series and statistics.
If you have a problem that is inherently quantitative in nature, we can help you solve it. Some examples of our work are listed below.
We particularly specialise in electricity market modelling, click on our price projection service for more information and use the dashboard to view some of our findings.
Quantitative and strategic analysis
Our advice is not confined to ‘running the numbers’ – our expertise in quantitative analysis means that we have a unique insight into the infrastructure sector. Knowing the vital statistics of an industry, and understanding how it will evolve into the future are fundamental to developing strategy. We are experts in identifying what is going on in an industry, developing guiding principles for navigating the sector, and ultimately recommending sets of actions. We know how to formulate and implement a strategy, and so help our clients make decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Experiement with our work on renewable energy droughts
Economic and regulatory expertise
Infrastructure businesses are typically subject to extensive economic regulation. A large part of our work involves guiding our clients through the process of navigating the regulatory frameworks that underpin the energy, transport and water sectors. We have experts in economic regulation and market design.
We work with government modies to provide market design and general economic advice. Some of our projects include:
Capacity market
Energy Security Board
Provided advice identifying the high-level design framework of a capacity mechanism, outlining potential choices and options for key design areas, undertaking international market research and providing quantitative analysis to identify reliability risk profiles in a system with high VRE penetration.
Expert advice for the NSW Electricity Roadmap
AEMO Services
Providing ongoing policy, modelling and quantitative advice in relation to NSW Electricity Roadmap REZ infrastructure planning and market modelling.
Supernormal profits
ESCOSA
Undertook a study to assess price and profit margins of gas and electricity market participants in South Australia. This involved a regression analysis to determine the strength and correlation of key relationships and market dynamics, as well as an analysis of electricity and gas cost stacks to understand the symmetry of cost changes.
Battery Tariffs
AER
Prepared a strategic piece on the challenges that the advent of batteries poses for the design of electricity distribution network tariffs and network regulation more broadly. This involved research on the history of batteries, the context surrounding storage, current policies and tariff charges.
We regularly work with networks for their upcoming regulatory resets especially in regards to tariff pricing. We also create financial and economic models to determine profitability and or compliance. Some of our projects include:
Long Run Marginal Cost
EQL
Advised on an appropriate methodology for estimating long run marginal cost in Energex and Ergon’s network, and developed a model to implement that methodology.
Economic Analysis
Essential Energy
Analysed the impact of the broader economic environment and changes in the energy market on Essential’s business model. This included developing a strategic plan for the future.
Review TSS
Ausgrid
Completed a major review to support the development of Ausgrid’s inaugural Tariff Structure Statement. This project involved a major review of Ausgrid’s existing tariff structures and tariff setting procedures to assess their consistency with the new distribution pricing rules.
Retail financial model
Photon Energy
Developed a financial model for Photon Energy Group to present to the AER for certification to become an energy retailer.
Building tools and software
A large part of work involves making tools and products that can be used on a ongoing basis by our clients. Sometimes these tools can be as simple as an API, or as complicated as an entire workflow. Our team’s strong programming skills make this type of work possible.
ML price forecast
Confidential client
Battery optimisation
Confidential client
Reliability of water
Confidential client
Portfolio firming model
Stanwell