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Endgame insights

This blog features snapshots of our analysis

The Weekly Dispatch: System stress

In this Weekly Dispatch: AEMO has released a preliminary report into the trip at Moorabool during a storm which left 500,000 customers in Victoria without power. CS Energy releases technical report into the Callide explosion in 2021. They also provide…

The Weekly Dispatch: Power dynamics

In this Weekly Dispatch: Energy Ministers have released an Energy Security Board report on integrating customer energy resources into the NEM. The AER is taking action against Callide Power Trading in relation to the explosion at Callide C in 2021.…

The Weekly Dispatch: Amber Ambitions

In this Weekly Dispatch: EnergyAustralia has confirmed a $1 billion write down with lower retail margins and higher cost of capital. The latest ACCC inquiry found retailer margins at just 2.3%. Le Chatelier’s principle. Lynne Kiesling writes an excellent defence…

The Weekly Dispatch: Breaking new barriers

In this Weekly Dispatch: Queensland set a record peak demand on Monday, breaking the previous record by 875 MW. The latest AEMO QED finds lower wholesale prices and record renewable production. The report also discusses the growing north-south split in…

The Weekly Dispatch: Solar surprises

In this Weekly Dispatch: Kalgoorlie experienced widespread power outages following a freak storm. The Queensland Government has announced support for 12 community batteries. A visualisation of nodal prices across the US during the winter storm. How consumers can be incentivised…

The Weekly Dispatch: Driving change

In this Weekly Dispatch: The Commonwealth Government has not approved plans by the Victorian Government to build a terminal to support offshore wind construction due to concerns around the impact on wetlands. The Victorian Premier said that steps can be…

The Weekly Dispatch: Holiday reading

In this Weekly Dispatch: AEMO Services Tender 3 results have been announced including wind, solar PV, BESS and compressed air storage. The CSIRO has released the consultation draft of GenCost 2023-24. AEMO Services has published the 2023 Infrastructure Investment Objectives…

The Weekly Dispatch: Step change

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO has released the Draft 2024 ISP. The NSW Government has released a consult paper on the Orderly Exit Management Framework to delay coal and gas exits. The preferred contracting model for coal…

The Weekly Dispatch: Customer Hardship

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The NSW Climate Change Bill passes parliament. The enshrines NSW emissions targets in legislation: 50% reduction by 2030; 70% by 2035 and net zero by 2050. The AER published its annual retail markets…

The Weekly Dispatch: Carbon creep

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Victorian government has announced support for a 600 MW/1,600 MWh battery through the SEC. The CEC published the Q3 2023 Renewable Energy Quarterly report showing that only 120 MW of VRE reached…

The Weekly Dispatch: Game Changer

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Commonwealth Government has announced an expansion of the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) to 23 GW of VRE and 9 GW of zero-emission dispatchable plant by 2030. They will work with state governments…

The Weekly Dispatch: Winds of change

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO issued a direction in NSW to maintain power system security for the first time according to WattClarity. This is likely to become more frequent with increasing VRE and decommitment of thermal units…

The Weekly Dispatch: Think fast

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: Gridcog looks at the first month of the Very Fast FCAS markets. Dan Lee at WattClarity looks at wind farm capacity factors. OpenNEM has new functionality including a time-of-day view. A summary of…

The Weekly Dispatch: Below zero

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO Services Tender 4 will not include Central-West Orana REZ Access Rights as originally planned. These rights are planned to be made available “as soon as possible”. South Australia averaged 87% renewables in…

The Weekly Dispatch: Blown away

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: South Australia’s Hydrogen Jobs Plan will support 250 MW of electrolysers and 100% hydrogen-fuelled turbines. The Victorian government has released the SECV’s strategic plan. AEMO published the latest QED showing a number of…

The Weekly Dispatch: Powering the future

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The High Court has found the Victorian road-user tax that applied to EVs to be unconstitutional. The ruling means that other states may be unable to implement similar charges. The CEFC has confirmed…

The Weekly Dispatch: Amping it up

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: .The NSW Government is set to legislate a 2030 target of 50% emissions and a target for net zero by 2050. The legislation will also establish a Net Zero Commission to monitor and…

The Weekly Dispatch: Renewable records

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The AER has published the 2023 State of the Energy Market The report highlights a number of challenges including an increase in retail prices, system security and reliability risks and transmission delays. Minimum…

The Weekly Dispatch: Charging ahead

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Prime Minister has hinted at new policy commitments to accelerate the transition in the Guardian Politics podcast. The episode should air tomorrow. It has been 7 years since the state-wide blackout in…

The Weekly Dispatch: Heatwave

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The South Australian Parliament has passed the Emissions Reduction Objectives Bill. The AEMC has published a guide on the approach they will take when applying the new objectives. They have also published the…

The Weekly Dispatch: Elasticity of supply

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The AEMC has published a draft rule to change the reliability settings. The MPC is set to be progressively increased to $22,800/MWh (in 2022 dollars) and the CPT to 8.5 hours of MPC…

The Weekly Dispatch: Need for speed

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The NSW Government releases the reliability Check Up. The government has accepted most recommendations including to engage Origin around the possibility of extending Eraring beyond 2025. ESIG releases a white paper on aligning…

The Weekly Dispatch: Race for reliability

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO’s 2023 ESOO projects significant reliability risks, particularly in NSW and Victoria if investment in new capacity is not forthcoming. The AEMC published the final report for the metering review setting a 100%…

The Weekly Dispatch: Renewable drought

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Victorian Government has signed an agreement with AGL to keep Loy Yang A available until 2035 (around 5 years later than the 2022 ISP Step Change scenario). Meanwhile, the reliability check up…

The Weekly Dispatch: WEM alarm

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO has released the WEM ESOO indicating a need for investment in capacity to meet the WEM reliability standard. The WA government has announced a 6 month delay to the Muja 6 coal…

The Weekly Dispatch: Charged Up

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO has released the 2023 Transmission Expansion Options Report for the 2024 ISP showing a significant increase in transmission cost estimates since the 2022 ISP. ARENA has published a report outlining the opportunities…

The Weekly Dispatch: Joules of Wisdom

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: DCCEEW has released a consultation paper on the Capacity Investment Scheme. The AEMC is proposing an alternative to the operating reserve mechanism by requiring extra information on storage state of charge and introducing…

The Weekly Dispatch: Carbon chronicles

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: There have been a number of developments regarding emissions in the NEO that are well summarised in this AEMC consultation note: The Emissions Reduction Objectives Bill will introduce an emissions objective into the…

The Weekly Dispatch: What price emissions?

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: Energy Ministers have submitted a suite of rule changes to harmonise the national energy rules with the emissions reduction component to be included in the energy objectives. AEMO has released its priority action…

The Weekly Dispatch: Exit delays and REZ pathways

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Commonwealth Government has declared a new offshore wind zone 20km off the Hunter coast. The zone will host up to 5 GW of capacity. Greater sea depths mean that floating turbines will…

The Weekly Dispatch: Origin Story

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council meeting communique noted the recently released National Hydrogen Strategy consultation and support for the Guarantee of Origin scheme (funded in the 2023-24 Budget). Ministers also agreed…

The Weekly Dispatch: What lies in store?

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: Commonwealth funding announced to expand NSW’s firming tender for new dispatchable renewable capacity by up to 550 MW, with the aim to eliminate AEMO’s forecast supply shortfall in FY 2029. The Energy Institute…

The Weekly Dispatch: It’s tricky – the challenges of price interventions

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: Gas spot prices have been above $12/GJ since 28 March and have averaged $17/GJ so far in May. Energy Policy WA has released a consultation paper proposing significant reforms to the Reserve Capacity…

How does AEMO forecast demand in the National Electricity Market?

Every 5 minutes, AEMO will dispatch generators across the National Electricity Market (NEM) in order to meet demand. To achieve this, AEMO needs to predict what demand will look like 5 minutes in the future.     Currently, AEMO uses…

It’s more than just a bid stack

Note: This article was first featured on WattClarity.  As the NEM transitions to a generation mix increasingly made up of wind and solar it is becoming increasingly important to understand the impact of constraints on dispatch. The NEM dispatch engine…

The Weekly Dispatch – Budgeting for the Future and Transmission Transformation

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: The 2023-24 Federal Budget includes measures that focus on: Funding for auctions for the Capacity Investment Scheme in South Australia, Victoria and NSW (in partnership with the Roadmap) later this year; Growing the…

The Weekly Dispatch – Tender triumphs and hydro holdups

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: AEMO Services has announced the successful projects from their first competitive tender with contracts awarded for 1,120 MW of solar PV, 275 MW of wind generation and a 50 MW 8-hour battery. Energy…

The Weekly Dispatch – Gas Pains and Wind Gains

In this edition of the Weekly Dispatch: Ocean surface temperatures hit new records and the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest model run suggests El Niño is increasingly likely later this year. Lynne Kiesling writes how a misdiagnosis of the 2021 ERCOT…

The Weekly Dispatch – Lights out at Liddell

The Weekly Dispatch is a new blog post series summarising the latest developments in the Australian and global energy markets. With so much happening across the sector we want to provide a quick digest of developments we come across during…

Give me 5 minutes

The second quarter of this year has witnessed a series of high price events in Queensland. These price spikes have been profoundly influenced by the dynamics associated with 5-minute dispatch, 30-minute settlement (hereafter ‘5/30’). The second quarter of this year has witnessed a series of high price events in Queensland. These price spikes have been profoundly influenced by the dynamics associated with 5-minute dispatch, 30-minute settlement (hereafter ‘5/30’).

Talkin’ bout our generation

Since the release of Dr Finkel’s review, the term ‘dispatchable generation’ has been appearing more and more across the NEM. The term does not yet have a clear definition, but seems to be used to refer to generating units whose short-term availability is largely determined by the operator (as opposed to the weather). Dispatchable generation therefore seems to encompass all generation except for wind, solar, and run-of-river hydro. Despite extensive discussion about the need for dispatchable generation, there has been little analysis of the demand for it. Against this backdrop, this week we look at the historical demand for dispatchable generation in the region of South Australia.

Small potatoes?

Following the announcement of the National Energy Guarantee, the sector has been awash with speculation about the specifics of this major new policy. Doubtless the NEG will continue to be the centre of much focus for weeks and months to come, and so we shall turn to this in future issues. Instead, this week we respond to a request from one of our readers to take a look at frequency control ancillary services (FCAS) costs. FCAS costs have often been dismissed as ‘small potatoes’ in the scheme of electricity supply, but have risen substantially in recent years. We examine this trend in this week’s charts.

Reaching new lows

For the last couple of weeks, the energy industry has been dominated by discussions about the long foreshadowed closure of Liddell. There has been a great deal of focus on the consequences of the closure during times of high demand. Amidst all the focus on highdemand, South Australia has been experiencing amazingly low levels of demand in recent weeks. Given that unusually low demand is unlikely to make the headlines, this week we thought we would make it our focus by examining the recent minimum demand outcomes in South Australia and Victoria.